PPM - The Next Arbitrends?
Okay, that got your attention. What is this idiot talking about? Many of you will remember when Arbitrend monthly ratings were first launched as a “Programming Tool.” Arbitron cautioned against making rash judgements or selling with the Arbitrends. What were the first two things that happened? Radio sales people hit the streets with the Arbitrends and PDs started changing their stations based on what amounted to statistical variances.
Here comes PPM with minute by minute information. The latest PPM study being touted by Coleman Research is that Rush Limbaugh’s ratings are higher during spots and right before he comes on the air. I promise you there are radio stations right this minute increasing their spotload to add more spots before Limbaugh’s show starts.
The data also indicates a big drop in audience six minutes after the beginning of each hour. It then takes 20 minutes to rebuild to that peak. All very interesting. But, to me it’s what isn’t touted or said that we need to pay attention to.Â
As you read the Coleman news release, think about these things:
1 - How many people is the information based on? Is 10 or 1,000, or 100?
I can remember getting an audience study from the leading radio research company in the 1980s. They had the gall to generate charts and percentages based on 14 people! Then, claim it was legitimate research. If you don’t know what “n” equals, discount what you read.
2 - The first six minutes of each hour of the Rush Limbaugh program is a newscast! So Rush peaks each hour at the end of the newscast. It then takes him 20 minutes to get the audience back he had when the newscast ended.
3 - Rush’s content is more attractive when it’s negative or neutral than when positive. I have no doubt this is true but how do they know that? How many days were surveyed. Did Coleman have a list of topics that it measured against minute by minute? Maybe, but frankly I doubt that even Rush has that minute detail.
4 - A Coleman VP says “Though this new technology does give the industry amazing new insight into how listeners use radio, we caution that there are too many variables impacting the audience for PPM to ascertain performance differences for narrowly-defined content categories. ‘Overanalysis‘ of minute-by-minute PPM data could just as easily lead you astray as give you the correct information.” So why did they do it? This is exactly what Coleman did to generate this news release research.
5 - Coleman says in its release that Rush’s content is particularly difficult to analyze because of it’s length.
6 - We already knew that. This study says most people don’t listen to the whole show. Really? How insightful? Only the talent and possibly a handful of idiot Program Directors believe people listen to an entire show. Its the whole point of the PPM. More frequency for shorter periods of time.
That being said, I am and always have been a BIG fan of PPM. Like with any research, its important to understand what the base is. Its also important to understand the difference between fact and conjecture. A lot of what you read is this news release research is pure conjecture from researchers NOT programmers.Â
Remember, they FAILED to mention that the first six minutes of every hour of the Rush Limbaugh Show is a newscast and that the show peaks at the END of the newscast. Rush doesn’t start to speak until six minutes after the hour. So, does this mean the audience is listening to the newscast and then tuning Rush out? Does it mean they’re hanging on every syllable of Rush’s words for the first minute of every show? Or was six minutes actually 5:45 or 6:15?
As you see more PPM data released, use it, consider it, and then look at it in context.  In my book, the PPM is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Just make sure you remember which side your bread is buttered on.