Have A Fine Broadcast Day!

Okay, that got your attention.  What is this idiot talking about?  Many of you will remember when Arbitrend monthly ratings were first launched as a “Programming Tool.”  Arbitron cautioned against making rash judgements or selling with the Arbitrends.  What were the first two things that happened?  Radio sales people hit the streets with the Arbitrends and PDs started changing their stations based on what amounted to statistical variances.

Here comes PPM with minute by minute information.  The latest PPM study being touted by Coleman Research is that Rush Limbaugh’s ratings are higher during spots and right before he comes on the air.  I promise you there are radio stations right this minute increasing their spotload to add more spots before Limbaugh’s show starts.

The data also indicates a big drop in audience six minutes after the beginning of each hour.  It then takes 20 minutes to rebuild to that peak.  All very interesting.  But, to me it’s what isn’t touted or said that we need to pay attention to. 

As you read the Coleman news release, think about these things:

1 - How many people is the information based on?  Is 10 or 1,000, or 100?

I can remember getting an audience study from the leading radio research company in the 1980s.  They had the gall to generate charts and percentages based on 14 people!  Then, claim it was legitimate research.  If you don’t know what “n” equals, discount what you read.

2 - The first six minutes of each hour of the Rush Limbaugh program is a newscast!  So Rush peaks each hour at the end of the newscast.  It then takes him 20 minutes to get the audience back he had when the newscast ended.

3 - Rush’s content is more attractive when it’s negative or neutral than when positive.  I have no doubt this is true but how do they know that?  How many days were surveyed.  Did Coleman have a list of topics that it measured against minute by minute?  Maybe, but frankly I doubt that even Rush has that minute detail.

4 - A Coleman VP says “Though this new technology does give the industry amazing new insight into how listeners use radio, we caution that there are too many variables impacting the audience for PPM to ascertain performance differences for narrowly-defined content categories.  ‘Overanalysis‘ of minute-by-minute PPM data could just as easily lead you astray as give you the correct information.”  So why did they do it?  This is exactly what Coleman did to generate this news release research.

5 - Coleman says in its release that Rush’s content is particularly difficult to analyze because of it’s length.

6 - We already knew that.  This study says most people don’t listen to the whole show.  Really?  How insightful?  Only the talent and possibly a handful of idiot Program Directors believe people listen to an entire show.  Its the whole point of the PPM.  More frequency for shorter periods of time.

That being said, I am and always have been a BIG fan of PPM.  Like with any research, its important to understand what the base is.  Its also important to understand the difference between fact and conjecture.  A lot of what you read is this news release research is pure conjecture from researchers NOT programmers. 

Remember, they FAILED to mention that the first six minutes of every hour of the Rush Limbaugh Show is a newscast and that the show peaks at the END of the newscast.  Rush doesn’t start to speak until six minutes after the hour.  So, does this mean the audience is listening to the newscast and then tuning Rush out?  Does it mean they’re hanging on every syllable of Rush’s words for the first minute of every show?  Or was six minutes actually 5:45 or 6:15?

As you see more PPM data released, use it, consider it, and then look at it in context.   In my book, the PPM is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Just make sure you remember which side your bread is buttered on.

CBS Radio really got into the Internet game later than most.  But since then, they have come on like gangbusters.  First the deal with AOL then the purchase of Last.fm.  Now, CBS stations will stream, in the United States only, over Last.fm.  CBS is touting a new player for both Last.fm and AOL streaming.

This is a great move that I’m happy to see.  As an industry, radio must embrace the Internet and take the lead instead of bringing up the rear.  We must establish our brands across as many platforms as possible.  Television is expanding into out area hurting listening in morning drive.  The Internet is looking to niche us to death with stations that appeal to 10 people.  A 100 “10s” make a thousand folks.

But streaming is only part of the equation.  The websites themselves need to be moved from promotions and marketing to programming.  I argued this point in the 1990s when radio was being cajoled into getting on the web.

But, in an effort to get radio to embrace the new frontier and prop-up their struggling enterprises, website developers and providers starting pushing the Internet as a dumping ground for sales and promotions.  Put all those pesky :10 liners and value added on your website they said.  And we did.

So, now we have all the same clutter on the website as we had on the air.  PLUS, more times than not the clutter has returned to the air.  Listening to some stations sounds like a minor league baseball game.  “My breathing is brought to you by….” kind of chatter.

As the Internet continues to grow and billing and Internet radio gets more sophisticated we are cluttering our websites the way we did AM radio in the 70s that gave FM an opportunity to flourish.

Its time to put the websites in the hands of Program Directors.  Its time for Program Directors to accept and understand the opportunity and responsibility.

CBS Radio streaming on Last.fm is a great step forward.  But they need to do something with their websites.  If you don’t believe me, look at the WCBS-FM website.  Click here.

The people that brought you the 8090 docket (I owned some) and nearly doubled the number of radio stations with HD Radio (I like the quality) are now up in arms about the XM Sirius merger.  Why?  Anti-competitive behavior?  Mixed-up Priorities?  Lack of belief that local IS better?

Here’s the bigger question: What will radio do when the Internet is available in all cars and there are thousands of stations playing Fergie records?  Will we finally wake-up then and start re-investing in our content and communities?  Will it be too late?

Oh, I know, everybody has content “deals” so they can have the content for their audience.  The same content available in a ton of other places.  I’ve always admired Saga Communications for standing up and dropping winning shows like the Sean Hannity program because it was also going to be offered on satellite.  The powers that be will tell you to grow-up;  we can’t stop it.  True enough.  What they don’t say is that value diminishes as repeated exposure of the same content increases fatigue and burn-out.

Forget the politics from the 11 state Attorneys General about caring about the public good.  Eliot Spitzer was an Attorney General.  Two of their three points about mandates for a common radio and a la carte pricing speak to its “suck-up-ness.”.  Work on a common reciever has been going on for years.  Anyone attending the Consumer Electronics Show can tell you that.  Mel brought up the a la carte pricing.  So, the final point they want is to force the combined satellite service to give up one of its spectrum spaces.  If the new XM Sirius only has the bandwidth of one service, Radio has effectively cut the number of satellite channels in half.  If the merger is blocked, one if not both, could fail or become something less competitive.  Either way the unbelievable “head in the sand” mentality of our industry prevails.   XM and Sirius are radio.  People listening to them are radio listeners.  They don’t have the iPod or CD plugged-in.  We are now more likely to lose a listener than gain one with every new birth.  We need those listeners liking something about radio. 

Clear Channel is asking for stricter enforcement of decency standards be applied to satellite radio.  It wants the FCC to force HD Radio into all new combo satellite receivers, wants part of the satellite radio spectrum opened up for a possible commercial competitor, and five percent of the spectrum be set aside for public interest uses.  I like the HD Radio idea.  But, I wonder how the FCC will view the statements about public interest programming as it considers “re-regulation” to force more local programming.  If a station were required to give up 5% of its air time for public interest programming - that’s 8.4 hours, 64+ spots per week per station.  I do like the idea of a committment to serving the public interest.

Competition is good.  It makes Radio better.  This merger is just the latest attempt to mask radio’s real problem.  Listening is dropping at an alarming rate because we’re not giving them a reason to listen.  There’s a growing number of people that view radio as just a commodity or music service.  We’re not creating an emotional attachment to the radio station.

Radio is in denial about its lack of compelling, creative content.  You can blame iPods, satellite radio, the Internet, or whatever you want.  All worth being acknowledged.  But, a Country Radio Broadcasters study has shown country listeners with iPods actually spent more time listening to radio.  Marketing 101 - its easier to get chocolate lovers to eat more chocolate than eat vanilla.  Sure, all those things occupy time.  But, if your stuff is better than their stuff, you win.  That’s how its worked since the beginning of time.  If you don’t give people a reason to listen they won’t.  Nobody gets hurt if they don’t turn on the radio.  Nobody but us.

The XM Sirius obsession is another symptom of denial.  Go back and look at the trades when radio guys were critical of satellite saying all their great content came from terrestrial radio.  Does that mean the well’s run dry?  No, it means today’s Wall Street over Main Street mentality makes decisions from the inside out.  No way to develop listener driven programming.  It takes time and money to develop concepts and talent.  There is some experimentation going on like Clear Channel’s Lonestar 92.5 in Dallas.  Its moving more mainstream to boost ratings but I applaud Clear Channel for trying some different things.  These stations are far and few between.

I subscribe to both Sirius and XM.  I do it for competitive reasons.  To be honest, I’m also a pretty big Howard Stern fan and I can’t get blues and jazz on the radio.  I like Maxim, Frank’s Place, Ethel, and some of the speciality stuff on both services.  My wife has spoken to Martha Stewart three times.  This was exciting for her and her chops are heavy in TV and movies.  People get excited about radio when there’s something to get excited about.

We’re thinking about the wrong things these days.  The XM/Sirius combo could be bad for our business.  The FCC might force us to do a better job of serving the public, is that bad programming?  Stock prices are dropping and we’re no longer the media darling.  Why aren’t we thinking about why radio listening is dropping like a hot potato?

We need to focus on our first customer, the listener and this will take care of our advertisers and shareholders.  This means creating great content.  That is more than just playing the right records and saying some off the shelf radio line about “12 in a row.”  The listeners already know that 12 songs in a row means 12 spots in a row.  They know because we’ve trained them.

Its time to realize we created almost every problem we allegedly have.  Stop the blame game.  The buck stops here.  Local Radio stations in local markets are where it’s at.  We’ve lived through a lot of competition and gotten stronger for it.  But this is different.  Television, eight-tracks, cassettes, and CDs were all going to kill radio.  They all took time to have impact.  We had time to catch up.

Technology no longer affords radio the luxury of time.  Internet years are like dog years.  If its not satellite it will be something else.  We must expand radio station brands across as many platforms as possible.  At the most basic level it increases our opportunity for more time with the listener.  You can’t deny that’s a good thing.

For years friends have badgered me for not having a blog.  Afterall, I’ve been harping on radio stations to embrace their web presence as part of their brand and their programming since the 90s.  Of course, if you’re going to have a presence you have to keep the content fresh and up to date.  So, my excuse has been the lack of time to do just that.

I developed this compulsion about keeping everything “in the moment” as a young Program Director.  Its part of what makes me successful at what I do and part of what drives me crazy.  At 50, it now seems like I’ve at least got it under control to keep these postings current.  You’ll have to decide how relevant they are.  If you think I’m a dumbass, at least I got you to think about something besides your budget and lunch. 

I have had more opportunities than most in this business.  I got in while AM music radio was still dominant.  Radio was entertaining for more reasons than just the music and in all dayparts not just morning drive.  I’ve seen and contributed to the dominance of FM over AM and the proliferation of radio and music programming on the Internet.   Satellite radio debuted, HD Radio debuted, Internet radio continues to grow and who knows what’s around the corner.  There’s no way we can know.

Sometimes you’ll think I’m crazy.  Sometimes you’ll think I’m brilliant.  Sometimes you’ll think I’m an idiot.  Sometimes I’ll be all three at once!  I hope the content is compelling enough you’ll want to come back.  Thanks for checking out my blog.  Have  a fine broadcast day!